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Quick Thought on the National Debt

Quick Thought on the National Debt

Recently, I have seen the graphic below floating around and heard various comments about how dire the situation is and wanted to provide one quick rebuttal (for lack of a better word). But first, let me show you the apocalypse du jour graphic. This chart shows the National Debt growing from less than $1 trillion in 1971 up to our current debt of approximately $23 trillion. Alarming, right? Maybe. That’s correct, I said maybe should be the answer, because it’s…

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Why Study Market History?

Why Study Market History?

While I am personally not an advocate of active investing, I follow the writing of many active managers. There are a few who have both a wonderful way with the written word and a track record to boot. Bill Miller of Miller Value Partners is one of them. I wanted to both make you aware of his work and point out a few insightful excerpts from his most recent 2Q 2020 Market Letter. Here are a few pieces of his…

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Where do we go from here?

Where do we go from here?

I have said before that the primary goal of successful retirement income investing isn’t growth OR income, but growth OF income. For people who are nearing retirement today, as we look over the horizon toward the thirty years that lie ahead, we must ask the question: Is it time to rethink the conventional wisdom of decades past? Historically, the popular answer for providing retirement income (though not necessarily the correct answer) has been bonds. During the past 30 years, this…

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Perceived Safety of Bonds

Perceived Safety of Bonds

Imagine standing in the middle of a field as a thunderstorm starts to roll through. About 50 yards away is a tall solitary tree. As someone who grew up in farming country, we grew up knowing that standing underneath the tree is the absolute worst thing we could do, even if it feels safer. The smart thing to do is to make yourself as small as possible by laying down on the ground, preferably farther away from the tree. At…

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The Stock Market and Predictions

The Stock Market and Predictions

Predictably unpredictable and unpredictably predictable. This is the market in a nutshell. The markets are predictably unpredictable because the market has a way of surprising the greatest number of people. Few people (nobody) saw the market returning 29% in 2019. I realize that’s a distant memory now, but it was still surprising, to say the least. Just as surely, nobody saw an economic shutdown caused by a global pandemic that resulted in the swiftest recession in stock market history. And…

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Appealing Medicare IRMAA Charges at Retirement

Appealing Medicare IRMAA Charges at Retirement

By now, you are likely familiar with the Medicare term, Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount, better known as IRMAA. Those who are subject to them, often wonder whether or not they can appeal them. In general, many retirees are only subject to IRMAA for the first couple of years in retirement due to the two-year look-back period. For instance, let’s say that you and your spouse are retiring this year and are filing for Medicare. Let’s assume that your household’s Modified…

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Retirement Field Guide Mission & What’s To Come

Retirement Field Guide Mission & What’s To Come

I started the Retirement Field Guide in March 2018. At the time, the only real purpose of the site was to share my views with people in my personal circles. And in all honesty, I started the site with the goal of gaining new clients. While a number of new clients have found me through this site, I have found myself thinking less about just my personal advisory business and started thinking more about the larger mission at hand. As…

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2020 Required Minimum Distributions

2020 Required Minimum Distributions

For those who aren’t aware, the CARES Act had already waived 2020 Required Minimum Distributions (RMD). But there was a slight oversight with regard to people who had already taken their RMDs as many retirees do in January each year. Well, last week, the IRS announced that for anyone who already took their RMDs for 2020 can roll those assets back into their retirement account as long as it is done by 31 August 2020 as the 60-day rollover period…

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Market Expectations for the Next 30 Years

Market Expectations for the Next 30 Years

As usual, there are many different scenarios being discussed at the moment. The COVID second wave, economic struggles, interest rate projections, more fiscal stimulus, corporate bankruptcies, and on and on we go. This is applicable to the world of traders, not investors. Investors don’t invest to make a quick buck. Long-term investors - which is a redundant term - invest because it is a prudent choice to expand capital over time, not overnight. With all of the above uncertainties, it…

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The Fixed Income Conundrum

The Fixed Income Conundrum

Here’s where we are today: As I write this, the 10-year Treasury yield stands at about 0.94% and the 30-year Treasury stands at 1.65%. This creates a bit of a conundrum for fixed income investors. Let me explain. The Federal Reserve Board has a long-standing policy they have stated through the years of a target inflation rate of 2%. Whether or not they accomplish this goal, here is what they reaffirmed in 2016: The inflation rate over the longer run…

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