Recently, I’ve gotten a number of questions regarding cryptocurrency and NFTs, so today’s post is part one of a three-part series I am calling “Making Sense of…” where I will attempt to explain bitcoin, ether, and NFTs since they are getting so much press these days. Today we will discuss bitcoin, then ether, then NFTs. In the first two posts, I will illustrate the various pieces of these two prominent… Read More
Don’t Confuse Probability with Certainty
We seek certainty in all facets of our lives. But financial planning and life don’t have “laws” like physics. Financial planning is a game of probabilities. When we use financial planning software or any kind of software assistance in projecting anything, almost all outputs are measured in some sort of probability. But our monkey minds turn these probabilities into certainties and financial advisors don’t often help this confusion. But if… Read More
Trading One Risk for Another
Seth Godin writes a daily blog and he recently wrote the following. (Apologies for basically quoting his entire post.) “An abundance of caution. Lawyers are fond of this. And sometimes, parents are too. At least you won’t get blamed if something goes wrong. It turns out that we don’t need an abundance of caution. We need appropriate caution. They’re different things. Abundant caution is wasted. Things like ripe avocados and… Read More
Optimization vs. Optionality
There is this pervasive idea in the financial advisor industry that everyone should be “optimizing” their financial strategies. This buzzword is marketed as hugely valuable such that every person should want it. It’s a differentiator for financial advisors and it encourages the feeling of FOMO if people somehow miss the boat. Once something goes completely mainstream, it’s my nature to question whether it’s all it’s cracked up to be. Mark… Read More
The Language of Investing
Over the past three years or so, I have written about 200,000 words or so on the topic of investing. As I cross into year four of this little site, I have noticed a disconnect that I believe causes investors to make more poor decisions than just about anything else. That is, the language we use. Maybe you have noticed that I almost never use the word “stocks” when I… Read More
How Can We Gauge Our Own Success?
In the movie “Soul”, they tell a story about a fish. A fish swims up to an older fish and says, “I’m trying to find this thing they call ‘the ocean’” “The ocean? the older fish says, “That’s what you’re in now.” “This?” says the young fish. “This is water. What I want is the ocean!” Admittedly, I am like this fish all the time. Always searching for what’s next…. Read More
Behavioral Investment Advice
The concept of “behavioral investment advice” is esoteric because, generally speaking, the only people who know the true value of what it can offer to investors are the advisors who have witnessed first hand the value of said advice. Generally speaking, people who believe advisors are a sham or are overpaid or whatever negative connotation they want to attach can’t accept a value proposition that seems completely intangible on the… Read More
What Do You Need from Your Retirement Portfolio?
In 2020, we ran a $3.7 Trillion deficit. That’s Trillion, with a capital T. Also in 2020, the inflation rate was estimated to be 0.62%. The current 10-year Treasury Note yield is 1.117%. What will happen in the decades to come is anyone’s guess. Will we end up with negative rates as so many countries have or will interest rates rise? Will inflation stay ultra-low or begin to creep up?… Read More
A Better Bet: Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks?
For the last 13 years, growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by a comfortable margin. Prior to that period, value stocks had outperformed for decades. With the shift in the tide toward the end of 2020 (when value finally outperformed again) the question begins to loom: “What should you own for what lies ahead?” The answer to that question is, “Yes.” There is no shortage of people who are willing… Read More
Be an Owner, Not a Loaner
When you look around your local community, just about anyone who has made serious money is most likely a business owner. One of the great investors of our lifetime, Naval Ravikant, said the following: “Being an owner in a company basically means you own the upside. When you own debt, you own guaranteed revenue streams and you own the downside.” Investing in the public markets isn’t all that different. You… Read More