Recently, I have written quite a bit about the long-term return expectations for investing in bonds. See here, here, here and here. Spoiler alert: I don’t think it’s good. But long-term bonds this year have been quite an amazing story as the COVID pandemic has caused the Fed to take historically monumental actions. As a result, we’ve watched long-term Treasuries tear the roof off the market. For instance, a 20+… Read More
Double Dip Recession Redux
The phrase “double-dip recession” is one I am hearing a lot recently given the economic data coming out detailing the impact of COVID on 2Q 2020. To me, this rings similar to the double-dip recession calls from 2011. For curiosity sake, I rang up the Google machine to go back in time nine years and came across the article below from the International Business Times: Global Recession 2011: It’s Real,… Read More
Unheralded Positive Events Every Year Since 1970
In the “Ends-of-the-World Every Year Since 1970” post, we focused on some of the most harrowing events over the last 50 years. Now, we get to explore the positive events since 1970. But before we do, it’s important to state the obvious here, and that is that the mainstream media isn’t interested in providing good news to you. Yet, it is these events that will likely have far more impact… Read More
Ends-of-the-World Every Year Since 1970
There always has been and always will be a reason not to invest or not to stay invested. This is all the mainstream media reports to us. Below you will find a list of some of the worst global events each year since 1970. I have some commentary to follow. 1970: War: US troops invade Cambodia.1971: Civil Unrest: Anti-war militants march on Washington.1972: Political: Start of Watergate Scandal.1973: Economic: OPEC… Read More
Quick Thought on the National Debt
Recently, I have seen the graphic below floating around and heard various comments about how dire the situation is and wanted to provide one quick rebuttal (for lack of a better word). But first, let me show you the apocalypse du jour graphic. This chart shows the National Debt growing from less than $1 trillion in 1971 up to our current debt of approximately $23 trillion. Alarming, right? Maybe. That’s… Read More
Why Study Market History?
While I am personally not an advocate of active investing, I follow the writing of many active managers. There are a few who have both a wonderful way with the written word and a track record to boot. Bill Miller of Miller Value Partners is one of them. I wanted to both make you aware of his work and point out a few insightful excerpts from his most recent 2Q… Read More
Where do we go from here?
I have said before that the primary goal of successful retirement income investing isn’t growth OR income, but growth OF income. For people who are nearing retirement today, as we look over the horizon toward the thirty years that lie ahead, we must ask the question: Is it time to rethink the conventional wisdom of decades past? Historically, the popular answer for providing retirement income (though not necessarily the correct… Read More
Perceived Safety of Bonds
Imagine standing in the middle of a field as a thunderstorm starts to roll through. About 50 yards away is a tall solitary tree. As someone who grew up in farming country, we grew up knowing that standing underneath the tree is the absolute worst thing we could do, even if it feels safer. The smart thing to do is to make yourself as small as possible by laying down… Read More
The Stock Market and Predictions
Predictably unpredictable and unpredictably predictable. This is the market in a nutshell. The markets are predictably unpredictable because the market has a way of surprising the greatest number of people. Few people (nobody) saw the market returning 29% in 2019. I realize that’s a distant memory now, but it was still surprising, to say the least. Just as surely, nobody saw an economic shutdown caused by a global pandemic that… Read More
Appealing Medicare IRMAA Charges at Retirement
By now, you are likely familiar with the Medicare term, Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount, better known as IRMAA. Those who are subject to them, often wonder whether or not they can appeal them. In general, many retirees are only subject to IRMAA for the first couple of years in retirement due to the two-year look-back period. For instance, let’s say that you and your spouse are retiring this year and… Read More
