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Category: Investing

What’s Really Going on in the Stock Market?

What’s Really Going on in the Stock Market?

I’m generally not big on posting articles about “What’s going on in the market?” But today, August 13th, marks the 40th anniversary of the infamous “The Death of Equities” article by business week. It came out, originally, just in time to usher in one of the great bull markets in our country’s history. I’ll get to some data on the current market environment, but before I do there are some amazing (surprising for some people?) observations about what’s happened since…

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There Are No Facts About the Future

There Are No Facts About the Future

As the market has started to meltdown this week and the presidential debates are heating up, there are plenty of discussions about what might happen to the economy if Trump’s tariffs continue or if Senator Warren or Sanders were to win the presidency. The latter bears a striking resemblance to the same predictions about how things might turn out when Trump shocked the world. Politics as usual. In any election cycle (which, to my dismay, never seems to go away),…

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How to Invest For a 30+ Year Retirement

How to Invest For a 30+ Year Retirement

A couple of weeks back, I had the pleasure of chatting with Taylor Schulte, CFP® on his retirement podcast, “Stay Wealthy.” Taylor is a highly respected retirement expert, so naturally, I was excited to have a public chat about a topic we are both passionate about. On the podcast, we discuss my post, A Portfolio Strategy for 30-Year Retirements, to include the following topics: Why living longer should be a goal to strive for and why you’ll probably live much…

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The Market Went ___ On ___.

The Market Went ___ On ___.

Lunacy. I’ve been watching various headlines for the direct purpose of pointing out the sheer craziness of headline investing. Here are five headlines from the past couple of weeks. “Stocks finish lower. Global growth worries return. Here’s what happened in markets today.” “The Dow Loses 33 Points Because the Market Is Getting Pulled in Different Directions” “Stock market gains after Fed removes ‘patient’ from policy statement.” “The Dow Jones Industrial Average just hit a new high, it’s time to talk…

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Why I Prefer Dividend Income Over Total Return in Retirement

Why I Prefer Dividend Income Over Total Return in Retirement

The one constructive response I received on the article, A Portfolio Strategy for 30-Year Retirements, was the preference for total return versus dividend income. If you haven’t read it, I’d encourage you to do so now as what follows will make much more sense. Before we dive in, let’s first define total return investing. Total return investing is the idea that there is no preference for investment gains, whether via dividends or growth of underlying capital. The thought process here…

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Selling the Sizzle: Risk-Adjusted Returns

Selling the Sizzle: Risk-Adjusted Returns

Jerry Seinfeld is one of my two favorite comedians. (Mitch Hedberg is the other in case you’re wondering.) He has a great bit about dry cleaning where he says, The whole problem with dry cleaning is that we all believe that this is actually possible. They’re cleaning our clothes, but they’re not getting anything wet. It’s all dry. I know there’s got to be some liquids back there, some fluids that they’re using. There’s no such thing as “dry” cleaning….

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A Portfolio Strategy For 30-Year Retirements

A Portfolio Strategy For 30-Year Retirements

PLEASE NOTE: This is a long post, but I passionately believe that if retirees have any chance of getting things right, they must properly understand all the underlying assumptions they are making in their retirement planning decision process. And because I view the subject(s) of this particular article to be so important, I wanted all the thoughts in one place instead of being spread amongst three or four individual posts – especially since these issues are inseparable in nature. If…

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Softening the Edges of the Market

Softening the Edges of the Market

As I was sitting in traffic on my way to the office this morning, I thought of the opening scene of the movie Office Space. If you haven’t seen it, take one minute and watch the video, it’s so relatable!  As I was watching the drivers around me weave from lane to lane, there appeared to be a very clear connection to “chasing performance” from an investment perspective.  Chasing performance is the process of making investment decisions based on what…

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Why Average Market Returns Mean Nothing

Why Average Market Returns Mean Nothing

David Hultstrom of Financial Architects puts out a great quarterly newsletter for financial advisors (and a great one for investors as well). In the most recent version of his advisor newsletter, he posted the following chart below with some great commentary that I wanted to share with you. The average compound return (i.e. geometric) is 9.75% (red line). Only in 1992 did an annual return round to 10%. In only 5 out of the 93 years was it even within…

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Finding Your Investing Edge

Finding Your Investing Edge

I’m going to continue my poker theme. Last week, I drew a comparison between poker and your odds of success as an individual versus the best in the world. This time, we’ll discuss how fund managers compete against each other and where you might have an advantage over these fund managers. Let’s say you had the opportunity to walk the floor at the World Series of Poker. The final table is all set, so all that’s left is the best…

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