Retirement Field Guide

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Pessimism Abounds

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With the hyper-partisan election in front of us and the COVID-inspired economic drawdown in our rearview, I find myself returning over and over again to the same question: “Is it possible that we are both too pessimistic in the short-term and too pessimistic about the long-term prospects of the market?” I’m not saying that we are, I’m just asking the question of whether it’s possible? Since 2008, I can think… Read More

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How I Invest My Money

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*There is a book being released on November 17, 2020 that I believe will be one of the best finance books of the year. The book is titled: “How I Invest My Money: Finance Experts Reveal How They Save, Spend and Invest.” It was brilliantly put together by Joshua Brown and Brian Portnoy and each contribution includes a beautiful illustration from Carl Richards. I am thankful I was asked to… Read More

Politics Don’t Matter…to Your Portfolio

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It is safe to say that politics are a touchy subject. It’s made even more touchy by the extremists on both sides who think that anyone taking an opposing view are beyond incompetent. These people color the waters of the more moderate (and level-headed) middle. Politics are personal though. What I have observed over the past four election cycles is the intersection of politics and investing. It’s what I want… Read More

Should You Expect Dividend Cuts?

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The predictions for dividend cuts sounded dire for quite some time. Many were predicting cuts of between 20%-30% here in the U.S. The jury is still out for now, but it doesn’t seem as likely based on what the data has shown thus far from Janus Henderson in their Global Dividend Index report. Here is their record of dividend cuts with regard to global dividends: Global dividends fell $108.1bn to… Read More

The Last Word on Bonds…For Now

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In Howard Marks latest memo, Time for Thinking, he makes the following observation: Lower interest rates increase the discounted present value of future cash flows and reduce the a priori return demanded from every investment. In layman’s terms, when the fed funds rate is zero, 6% bonds look like a giveaway, so buyers bid them up until they yield less (thus I believe 97% of outstanding bonds yield less than… Read More

Rethinking Investment Risk in Retirement

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Investors love to talk about risk. What’s the downside risk? How can you hedge your risk? How can I evaluate the risks in my portfolio? Should we address investment risk in retirement the same as during the accumulation phase? What about my personal risk tolerance? These days, risk tolerance questionnaires are all the rage and there are companies springing up out of nowhere trying to cash in on this CYA… Read More

IRA Mistakes Retirees Make

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According to the Investment Company Institute as of March 31, 2020, there were approximately $9.5 trillion in IRA assets. Given the sheer volume of Americans that own an IRA combined with the complicated IRS tax code that accompanies them, there are plenty of ways to trip yourself up when it comes to IRA planning throughout your life. In this article, we focus on the IRA mistakes I see most from… Read More

Is this the last hurrah for bonds?

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Recently, I have written quite a bit about the long-term return expectations for investing in bonds. See here, here, here and here. Spoiler alert: I don’t think it’s good. But long-term bonds this year have been quite an amazing story as the COVID pandemic has caused the Fed to take historically monumental actions. As a result, we’ve watched long-term Treasuries tear the roof off the market. For instance, a 20+… Read More